Antarctica helps regulate the global climate and has a significant impact on Aotearoa New Zealand’s weather. In a recent webinar for SBN Impact Investors, Professor Tim Naish, from Victoria University in Wellington, described our climate as a game of tug-of-war between cold air and ocean currents from Antarctica and warm air and warm ocean currents from the tropics. The warming climate shifts the balance, leading to more extreme weather events.
In 2024, the planet recorded its warmest year, pushing us closer to climate tipping points. The ocean has absorbed over 90% of the heat trapped by fossil fuel emissions. Seventy percent of that heat has been absorbed by the Southern Ocean. As a result, the West Antarctic ice sheets, which sit below sea level, are melting at an accelerating rate. If they collapse, global sea levels could rise by up to 3.3 meters.
Professor Naish warns that if global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, Antarctic ice loss will be permanent. If all of Antactica’s marine ice sheets melt completely sea levels could rise by more than 20 metres. This would change coastlines dramatically, forcing millions of people around the world to leave low-lying areas. This is a serious concern for Aotearoa New Zealand as many of our cities are on the coast.
Climate risks are a business imperative
The World Economic Forum’s 2023 Global Risks Report identified climate-related risks as the top four threats over the next decade:
- Failure to mitigate climate change
- Failure to adapt to climate change
- Natural disasters and extreme weather events
- Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
These risks are already impacting businesses in Aotearoa New Zealand. Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland Anniversary floods, in early 2023, demonstrated how extreme weather devastates communities, disrupts supply chains and raises costs for businesses and consumers. Farmers and growers are especially vulnerable. Storms have damaged crops, forcing food prices up. The knock-on effect of this makes food staples too expensive for many families.
What can we expect?
Antarctica’s climate shifts are already influencing weather patterns for Aotearoa New Zealand:
- Expansion of the tropics. More frequent and intense ocean heatwaves.
- Increased extreme weather events. More ex-tropical cyclones, especially on the east coast, like Cyclones Gabrielle and Hale. And more atmospheric rivers that act as pipelines for carrying warm, tropical moisture that causes heavy rainfall, like the Auckland Anniversary floods.
- The El Niño and La Niña cycles will indicate the pattern of extremes we can expect. El Niño years bring hotter temperatures. La Niña years make ex-tropical cyclones more likely.
- Wet areas will get wetter. Dry areas will become drier. With 2 degrees of warming, the west of the country could get 5% more rain this century, while the east will be hit by three times as many droughts, making wildfires more likely.
- Glacier and snowline retreat. Franz Josef glacier is retreating and ski fields, like Treble Cone and Cardrona, are already experiencing less snow. This will impact tourism and water supply.
- Sea levels are rising. If we limit warming to 1.5 degrees, we can expect a 50 centimetre rise by the end of the century.
Mitigation and adaptation
Aotearoa New Zealand has an Emissions Reduction Plan. Professor Naish says it’s not ambitious enough. He believes it focuses too much on carbon offsets and tree planting instead of reducing emissions. While mitigation efforts are essential, adaptation is now critical.
Key steps for businesses and communities include:
- Understanding coastal hazards using tools like NZ SeaRise.
- Planning for climate adaptation rather than responding to disasters. Investing in climate resilience to protect assets from extreme weather. Check out the ClimateWise tool for practical guidance.
- Reducing emissions within business operations and supply chains to slow climate impacts. Use the Climate Action Toolbox to create an action plan.
Need support? Check out SBN’s training programme or contact [email protected] to learn more about our advisory service.
Will we be proactive or stay in disaster recovery mode?
The signs from Antarctica are clear, says Professor Naish. Climate change is speeding up and will have a major impact on Aotearoa New Zealand. We cannot choose mitigation or adaptation. We must do both. Businesses, policymakers, and communities must see climate change as an urgent economic risk and take action to adapt and reduce its effects. The time to act is now.
Missed the webinar? We have a recording available for SBN Impact Investors, contact [email protected] for access.